Demography, Not Politics (GS Paper 2, Polity)
Context:
- The scrutiny of lower fertility rates in India shouldn't be used to disadvantage states that have made progress in reducing their fertility rates.
- As the Census is likely to take place next year and the delimitation exercise for Parliamentary seats is expected afterward, it's important that southern states' success in lowering fertility rates be recognized and encouraged, rather than penalized.
Introduction:
- The upcoming Census and subsequent delimitation exercise have sparked concerns, especially regarding how the allocation of parliamentary seats might change due to differing fertility rates across states.
- States with lower fertility rates, particularly in the south, could lose representation, which may be viewed as an unfair disadvantage for their efforts in population control.
- Instead of scrutinizing fertility rates as a potential issue, these achievements should be seen as positive milestones.
Issues with Population Growth
Political Implications: Delimitation and Representation
- One of the primary concerns with changing population dynamics is the potential for states with lower fertility rates to lose parliamentary representation.
- This issue arises from the freeze on delimitation, which has been extended twice — once in 1976 and again in 2001.
- While extending the freeze on delimitation may appear to be the most feasible short-term solution, it highlights the disparities created by varying population growth rates across the country.
- This can potentially skew the democratic representation, where some states may lose seats despite contributing to national development through population control.
Economic Implications: Resource Allocation
- Population size directly affects the allocation of central resources through the Finance Commission.
- States with larger populations, especially those where fertility rates remain high, often benefit disproportionately from this system.
- Despite efforts to address this through the inclusion of demographic change as a variable by the 14th and 15th Finance Commissions, states with low fertility rates can still feel marginalized.
- There is a pressing need to rethink how resources are distributed to ensure fairness without incentivizing higher fertility rates as a means to secure more funding.
Social Implications: Regional Disparities
- Differential fertility rates across regions can exacerbate inter-state disparities.
- For example, states with lower fertility rates may face challenges in securing the same level of financial and political support as states with high fertility rates.
- Economic growth in regions with higher fertility must be prioritized to reduce these disparities and ensure that population control efforts do not result in economic stagnation or underrepresentation.
Population Scenario in India
Current and Future Trends
- India's population is expected to peak at around 170 crores by 2070, and then begin to decline.
- Currently, India has achieved a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2, just under the replacement fertility rate of 2.1.
- This means that, on average, a mother has enough children to replace herself, which signals a demographic transition towards stabilization.
- However, there is a stark difference in fertility rates across states.
- Nearly two-thirds of the population resides in states where the fertility rate is at or below the replacement level, while one-third lives in states with higher fertility rates.
State Variations in TFR
- The TFR varies significantly across states in India, ranging from as low as 1.5 to as high as 3.0, based on the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5).
- This discrepancy is a reflection of not only economic and social factors but also the differences in access to reproductive health services and women's empowerment.
- Some states, particularly in the southern and western regions, have made significant progress in bringing fertility rates down, which should be celebrated rather than penalized in terms of resource allocation and representation.
Way Forward: Policy Recommendations
A key recommendation is to accelerate efforts to reduce fertility rates in states where they remain high. This can be achieved through:
- Enhancing Women's Empowerment: Policies that empower women to make decisions about their family size, improving education, employment opportunities, and gender equality, can lead to a natural reduction in the demand for large families.
- Improving Reproductive Health Services: Ensuring access to quality family planning and health services can help couples meet their family size intentions, particularly in states where fertility rates remain high.
- State-Specific Focus: Focused interventions are needed in the five states where the fertility rate is still higher than the replacement level. Targeted policies and outreach can support these states in their demographic transitions without penalizing the southern states that have successfully managed their fertility rates.
Conclusion
- India’s demographic challenges require a multi-pronged approach that balances equity and growth.
- While reducing fertility rates in high-TFR states is crucial, it is equally important to maintain the achievements made by states with low fertility rates.
- The government must ensure collaborative efforts between the Centre and states, with targeted economic and social reforms that promote a more equitable and sustainable strategy for population management.
- Rather than focusing on fertility rates as a problem to be scrutinized politically, India must embrace a balanced approach that ensures that representation and resources are distributed fairly across all states, fostering national unity and addressing regional disparities.
