The Modi-Jaishankar Doctrine: Balancing India’s Foreign Relations in Cold War 2.0 (GS Paper 2, Polity)
Context:
- India’s evolving foreign policy, particularly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, has seen a shift towards more dynamic global engagement, as the world faces what some term "Cold War 2.0."
- The rise of geopolitical tensions and the return of great power competition necessitate India’s ability to balance its relations with multiple global powers, all while navigating an increasingly complex international landscape.
Introduction:
- India’s international stature and posture are undergoing a gradual but significant transformation.
- The country is asserting itself as a more active and influential global player, moving beyond traditional foreign policy approaches to a more pragmatic, diversified, and strategic form of engagement.
- This shift is encapsulated in what has been termed the Modi-Jaishankar Doctrine, which aims to secure India’s interests in an increasingly multipolar world while balancing its relationships with various global powers.
India’s History of Non-Alignment:
India’s foreign policy post-independence was rooted in Non-Alignment, a strategy formulated out of necessity due to the country’s economic and military constraints. Non-Alignment sought to keep India out of the Cold War’s ideological rivalry, primarily between the Soviet Union and the United States. The goal was to shield India from external entanglements and focus on its own economic and developmental needs.
Key characteristics of India’s Non-Alignment during this period included:
- Avoiding formal alliances.
- Minimizing external interference in India’s affairs.
- Prioritizing national development and stability.
Post-Cold War, India’s relationship with the Soviet Union evolved into a partnership with the Russian Federation, continuing a trajectory of balancing great power relationships but without committing to fixed alliances.
From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment:
While Non-Alignment was a policy of avoidance, Multi-Alignment is an active strategy of engagement based on India’s national interests. This marks a significant shift, emphasizing:
- Non-Alignment as a strategy of avoidance and minimizing risks.
- Multi-Alignment as a proactive strategy, based on active engagement with multiple global powers to secure India’s interests.
Core Features of the Jaishankar-Modi Doctrine:
Multi-Polar World, Multi-Vector Strategy:
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- The doctrine emphasizes engagement with multiple global powers based on mutual interests rather than ideological alignment.
- It signals that India is ready to play an active, balancing role in global affairs, avoiding exclusive commitments to any single bloc.
Proactive Engagement:
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- India is increasingly asserting its geopolitical capacity and willingness to leverage its position in global affairs.
- It engages in strategic partnerships across continents, balancing economic, security, and diplomatic relations.
Examples of Multi-Alignment in Practice:
Russia:
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- India continues to purchase crude oil from Russia, benefiting from favorable terms despite Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
- India avoids outright condemnation of Russia, balancing its relationship with a key partner in defense and energy while not aligning itself entirely with Moscow's geopolitical stance.
United States:
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- India has acquired advanced defense equipment from the U.S. and strengthened strategic partnerships in areas like defense, technology, and trade.
- At the same time, India manages tensions in areas like trade imbalances and human rights issues, navigating a complex relationship without full alignment.
West Asia:
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- India maintains a delicate balance in West Asia, supporting Israel’s right to defend itself in Gaza, while also maintaining strong relations with Iran, especially in regard to economic and infrastructure projects like the Chabahar port. India’s stance avoids alienating key regional partners.
Opportunities in Multi-Alignment:
Strategic Autonomy:
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- India’s multi-alignment policy allows it to maintain strategic autonomy, avoiding entanglements in rigid alliances and preserving flexibility in decision-making.
Economic and Diplomatic Leverage:
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- By engaging with a wide range of nations, India can unlock diverse opportunities in trade, defense, and technology partnerships, expanding its influence in a globalized world.
Global Perception:
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- India is increasingly seen as a stabilizing force and a credible voice in international forums.
- It is viewed as a nation capable of navigating complex geopolitical dynamics, adding value to global discussions on security, climate, and economic development.
Challenges of Multi-Alignment:
Morality vs. Rationality in Diplomacy:
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- India must find a balance between national interests and adherence to core values such as democracy and human rights.
- Managing these sometimes conflicting aspects in its foreign policy could prove difficult, especially when dealing with authoritarian regimes or controversial issues.
Potential Bipolarity in a Cold War 2.0:
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- The rise of Cold War 2.0, characterized by intensifying competition between the U.S. and China, presents a challenge.
- In such a scenario, bipolarity could emerge, forcing India to make more definitive choices about its global alliances.
- This shift would undermine India’s current multi-alignment strategy and could alienate certain partners if its interests clash with theirs.
Way Forward and Conclusion:
India’s approach to foreign policy in the coming years hinges on the assumption of a stable multi-polar global order. The success of the Modi-Jaishankar Doctrine depends on:
- The durability of multi-polarity in global politics.
- India’s ability to navigate emerging power dynamics, particularly with the growing influence of China and the evolving role of the United States.
To sustain its global influence, India must articulate clear narratives that reflect both its interests and values. Maintaining a consistent and coherent moral positioning will be crucial in ensuring that India retains its credibility as a reliable global partner. The path forward for India involves striking the right balance between national interests, geopolitical maneuvering, and global responsibility.
